Datum Signals

Updated October 12, 2026, 4:01 PM UTC

Every 2026 Senate, Governor, and House race, forecast daily.

63%

Democrats control the Senate

D 48 · R 47 incl. seats not up · 51 to win

71%

Democrats control the House

D 209 · Toss-up 3 · R 188 · 218 needed

Democrats hold the most governorships

D 19 · R 16 · Toss-up 1

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Who's winning, race by race

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

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Color is the projected lean. Hover or tap a race for its candidates and win probability; click to open the race page.

10 closest races

GA-07House Republican favored, 50% FLSenate Democrat favored, 50% IA-03House Republican favored, 51% NESenate Republican favored, 52% FLGovernor Democrat favored, 52% MESenate Republican favored, 52% NCSenate Democrat favored, 53% PA-10House Republican favored, 54% AZ-01House Democrat favored, 56% CO-03House Republican favored, 56%

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House

188171

D 209 · R 188 · 218 for majority

Senate

1232312

D 13 · R 17

Governor

1423312

D 19 · R 16

Senate shows only the 33 seats up in 2026, not the full 100-seat chamber -- the other two-thirds aren't up for election this cycle, so a 51-seat majority line isn't meaningful here.

What moved this week

No rating changes since Monday, 2026-10-12 -- every race is in the same bucket it was in a week ago.

What our model sees right now

Live 95%

GA Governor: money is lopsided in a close race

The Republican candidate has raised 95% of the two-party money ($5.8M vs $119.0M) in a race the model still rates Lean or closer.

See more · Oct 12 Live 28 open seats

An open-seat wave in 2026

2026 has 28 open Senate and Governor seats, 40% above the 2018/2022 midterm average of 20.0.

See more · Oct 12 Live 40-point gap

FL Senate: our model and the market disagree most

Model 50% D vs market 11% D (as of Oct 12, 2026) -- opposite directions.

See more · Oct 12 Live 40-point gap

SD Senate: our model and the market disagree second-most

Model 40% D vs market 0% D (as of Oct 12, 2026) -- same direction but a real gap in confidence.

See more · Oct 12 Live 19.1pp lean

NE Senate is tighter than it looks

NE leans R by 19.1 points at the presidential level, but this race sits within 6 points of a toss-up.

See more · Oct 12 Live $16.6M

FL Senate is a real money race

Both candidates have raised heavily and the money is close: $8.2M (D) vs $8.4M (R).

See more · Oct 12 Context 18/20

How midterms usually go for the party out of power

In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections (1946-2022), the president's party lost House seats. Today Democrats (out of power) are currently favored in 52% of tracked 2026 House races.

See more · Oct 12 Context 0.098